0102030405
Analysis of Global Aluminum Market Supply and Demand Trends in 2026
2025-01-16
1
The supply-demand gap has become a consensus
Although there are slight differences in the specific size forecast of the gap, the expectation of market shortage is highly consistent. For example, Morgan Stanley and Huatai Securities both believe that the global aluminum market will experience a shortage in 2026, with Huatai Securities estimating that the gap may widen to the level of 800000 tons. HSBC Research also predicts that supply shortages will become a market focus and expects aluminum prices to rise by 6%. The report from The Economist Intelligence Unit predicts that global demand for primary aluminum will maintain a growth rate of approximately 2% by 2026.
2
Industry scale and regional growth hotspots
The global aluminum extrusion market is expected to exceed 101.82 billion US dollars by 2025 and 219.82 billion US dollars by 2035, with a compound annual growth rate of over 8% during the forecast period.
The aluminum extrusion product market is also showing strong growth, expected to increase from $90.2 billion in 2024 to $292.1 billion in 2037, with a compound annual growth rate of 9.4%.
The Asia Pacific region, especially China, holds a dominant position in the aluminum profile market, accounting for about 60% of global primary aluminum production. China's primary aluminum production reached 38.5 million tons in 2021, accounting for 58% of the global total production.
The growth potential of the North American market is also considerable. Driven by policies such as the 'Buy American' policy and the 'Inflation Reduction Act', as well as increased investment in green infrastructure, the North American aluminum profile market is expected to grow rapidly.
3
Low inventory and high costs are the norm
Global aluminum inventory is currently at historically low levels for many years, which creates a very high safety margin for aluminum prices. Meanwhile, electrolytic aluminum is a high energy consuming industry, with electricity costs accounting for over 40% of the total cost. Under the global "dual carbon" goal, increased investment in environmental protection and high energy prices will continue to drive up production costs. This indicates that aluminum prices may continue to strengthen in the next one or two years, bringing both opportunities and challenges to the aluminum profile industry.
